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December 01, 2004

Re: Election discloses political fault lines (News-Register 11/27/2004)

(Published with some accepted edits 12/4/2004 as Numbers prove state is turning more 'blue')

To Reader's Forum:

Recently some have focused on the "red" versus "blue" notion and as characterizing Multnomah County as an island of blue in a sea of red.  In reality Oregon overall is trending more Democratic, not only by total vote, but at the county level as well.

Comparing 2000 and 2004, it wasn't just Multnomah that was blue, there were eight counties (the same eight) that voted for the Democrat.  And five of those are rural!  (Having no more than 3% of the state's voters.)  Then, comparing the ratio of Democrat to Republican in all counties, we see that Bush lost significant ground in 21 of our 36 counties (thus including half that were "red" in 2000), he gained ground in just 8 and stayed roughly even in the remaining 7.

Furthermore, this "blue" trend is confirmed in the pickup by Democrats of several seats in both the Oregon House and Senate in this election ... in districts outside of Multnomah County.

Multnomah County's trend may be stronger, but it is the same direction as the rest of Oregon: more Democratic.

Oregon_2000.xls

Oregon_2004a.xls

Oregon_2004v2000.xls

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